Last Quarter Moon Wednesday night January 03, 2024 becomes waning crescent Moon January 4, 2024. YouTube Tips ⓘ
A strong winter storm system with gusty winds and heavy, wet snow may track somewhere through Chicagoland in the timeframe of Tuesday, January 9, 2024 to Thursday, January 11, 2024 with a change to a more wintry weather pattern compared to our mild December 2023. Otherwise, the short term observations and forecast are not very exciting.
The hourly observed temperature of 29°F at 2:51 a.m. at O’Hare dipped below the forecast low temperature of 30°F. Also, cloud cover persisted more than expected overnight Wednesday to Thursday compared to the hourly forecast presented at 7:00 p.m. With the persistent cloud cover there isn’t a lot of opportunity to see the Moon emerge as the waning crescent moon following the Last Quarter Moon Wednesday night.
Cloud cover trends continue to be of somewhat low confidence today. Regional satellite imagery currently indicates a large area of real estate covered by this persistent stratus deck (basically all of the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes). Unfortunately, a majority of forecast guidance does not appear to have much of a handle on the extent of this cloud cover whatsoever. More clouds than sun today are expected as this shallow moisture layer potentially remains trapped under a subsidence inversion aloft.
The stratus deck is rather shallow (only ~1000 ft). Accordingly, some small holes have recently developed across parts of northern Illinois into portions of Wisconsin.
Clouds look to linger Thursday, and potentially linger through the entire short-term forecast period (Friday).
There is a low threat (about 10%) for another period of drizzle and/or freezing drizzle late Thursday night into Friday morning, primarily across northwestern Illinois into southern Wisconsin.
Some lingering light lake effect snow showers are possible early Thursday morning across portions of northwestern Indiana. Little or no accumulation expected.
The outlook does not indicate hazardous weather for Thursday morning, January 4, 2024.
Weather Radar in northeast Illinois was clear.
See also Arlingtoncardinal.com/clouds
A few snow showers will move through the area (mainly north of I-80) this evening before a high pressure system moves overhead tomorrow. Snow showers will return this weekend. #ILwx #INwx pic.twitter.com/b6CmYmQTvk
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) January 3, 2024
O’HARE FORECAST …
Overnight Wednesday/Thursday: Cloudy, with a low around 30. North northwest wind around 5 mph.
Thursday: Cloudy, with a high near 35. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. South southwest wind around 5 mph.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.
Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Southeast wind around 5 mph.
Saturday: Snow likely before noon, then snow showers likely after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37.
Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy.
Tuesday: Rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Blustery.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Breezy.
LAKE TEMPS …
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
901 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES…
CHICAGO SHORE………..39.
CHICAGO CRIB…………41.
MICHIGAN CITY………..40.
SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY…..43.
&&
M IS FOR MISSING DATA THAT IS NORMALLY AVAILABLE.
THE MICHIGAN CITY WATER TEMPERATURE SENSOR IS LOCATED AT
A WATER INTAKE ONE MILE OFFSHORE AND 60 FEET BELOW THE
WATER SURFACE. IT IS READ EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR.
january.chicagoweatherstation.com
Chicago Weather Forecast for your MAC/PC/TABLET includes surrounding suburbs.
^^ MOBILE? USE VOICE MIC ^^
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20240105-1435future
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
259 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2024
.SHORT TERM…
Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2024
Through Friday…
Key Messages:
– Some lingering light lake effect snow showers early this
morning across portions of northwestern IN. Little or no
accumulation expected.
– Clouds look to linger today, and potentially linger through the
entire period through Friday.
– Low threat (about 10%) for another period of drizzle and/or
freezing drizzle late tonight into Friday morning, primarily
across northwestern IL into southern WI.
The lake effect showers continue to look poorly organized across
northwestern IN early this morning. This is likely to the result
of rather shallow inversion heights, and an otherwise poor
thermodynamic environment for robust lake effect showers. For
this reason, we are not expecting any travel impacts as a result
of the snow showers this morning. In fact, any lingering light
showers are expected to diminish by mid to late morning.
Cloud cover trends continue to be of somewhat low confidence
today. Regional satellite imagery currently indicates a large
chunk of real estate covered by this persistent stratus deck
(basically all of the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes).
Unfortunately, a majority of forecast guidance does not have
appear to have much of a handle on the extent of this cloud cover
whatsoever. I am thus concerned that we may end up stuck with a
lot more clouds than sun today as this shallow moisture layer
potentially remains trapped under a subsidence inversion aloft.
While this is the case, a complicating factor is that this deck of
stratus is rather shallow (only ~1000 ft). Accordingly, some
small holes have recently developed across parts of northern IL
into portions of WI. While this could result in some peaks at the
sun today, I have opted to go more pessimistic with cloud cover
today.
If we end up breaking up this low-level cloud cover at all today
into this evening, it appears that it will redevelop across the
area later tonight into Friday. This as warm air advection kicks
up following the eastward passage of a surface high moving
overhead during the day today. There is even some concern that the
low-level warm air advection may foster an additional period of
drizzle or freezing drizzle sometime late tonight into Friday
morning, primarily across northwestern IL into southern WI.
Confidence on this occurring remains very low at this time, but
forecast soundings from the RAP do indicate cloud depths becoming
marginally deep enough (~3,000 ft) to support some light drizzle
development. Given the low overall confidence (along with the
potential for limited potential impacts due to surface
temperatures remaining around freezing), we have opted to leave a
formal mention out of the forecast at this time.
With cloud cover potentially hanging on through most of the
period, expect little diurnal range in temperatures through Friday.
We should thus generally see high temperatures into the middle
30s, with overnight lows tonight into the upper 20s to around 30.
KJB