Weather forecast for Wednesday, April 10, 2024. YouTube Tips ⓘ
Another pleasant spring day in order for Wednesday, April 10, 2024 but a strong lake breeze will spread inland this afternoon resulting in colder lake air sending temps falling beginning around 2:00 pm. with a wind shift from south to winds from east.
Rain Thursday: Over one inch rain possible in Arlington Heights from about 2:00 a.m. Thursday to midnight Thursday/Friday.
Heavier rainfall is possible Thursday east of I-55, including northwest Indiana. Rainfall totals of 1 inch to locally over 2 inches are possible east of I-55, and especially across northwest Indiana.
The nearest severe weather is just south of southern Illinois, and the most intense severe weather is forecast for southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida panhandle.
Weather Radar in northeast Illinois and all of Illinois was clear at 9:50 a.m.
All of Illinois affected by clouds moving southwest to northeast with thicker cloud cover over central Illinois and southern Illinois at 9:50 a.m.
See also Arlingtoncardinal.com/clouds
Cloudiness will be on the increase today leading to rain spreading into the area tonight. Rain will continue Thursday before gradually tapering off Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall totals are possible east of I-55, especially into NW IN. Dry and mild for the weekend. pic.twitter.com/twzgmW3Q9T
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) April 10, 2024
Loyola Medicine Allergy Count for 4-9-2024
Trees – Moderate
Grass – Low
Ragweed – Absent
Weeds – Absent
Mold – Low— Loyola Medicine Allergy Count (@LoyolaAllergy) April 9, 2024
Loyola Medicine Allergy Count for 4-10-2024
Trees – High
Grass – Low
Ragweed – Absent
Weeds – Absent
Mold – Moderate
O’HARE FORECAST …
Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 66. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Wednesday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 47. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday: Rain. High near 52. Breezy, with a north wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Thursday Night: Showers, mainly before 1am. Low around 46. West northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Breezy.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 69.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Monday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Tuesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Breezy.
LAKE TEMPS …
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
836 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES…
CHICAGO SHORE………..46.
CHICAGO CRIB…………43.
MICHIGAN CITY………..45.
SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY…..41.
&&
M IS FOR MISSING DATA THAT IS NORMALLY AVAILABLE.
THE MICHIGAN CITY WATER TEMPERATURE SENSOR IS LOCATED AT A WATER INTAKE ONE MILE OFFSHORE AND 60 FEET BELOW THE WATER SURFACE. IT IS READ EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR.
april.chicagoweatherstation.com
Chicago Weather Forecast for your MAC/PC/TABLET includes surrounding suburbs.
^^ MOBILE? USE VOICE MIC ^^
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
654 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES…
– Heavy rainfall is possible Wed night into Thursday east of I-55, including NW Indiana. Renewed river rises likely, with some flooding possible.
– Gusty winds Friday.
– Strong signal for unseasonable warmth this weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION… Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Through Thursday Night:
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a couple of noteworthy features. First, a vigorous closed mid-upper level low over Texas with widespread convection from eastern TX east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The other, less prominent, but still important feature is a strong northern stream shortwave trough digging southeast into western Montana. This feature is part of a broader upper trough that extends from Ontario west to the Canadian Rocky Mountains. These two features, and how they interact with each other, will play a key role in our weather over the next 48 hours.
First, today should be another pleasant spring day. Though much like what is typical of many `a spring day around here, a strong lake breeze will spread inland this afternoon resulting colder marine air sending temps falling. The most prominent cooling will be nearer to the lake where afternoon temps should fall into the upper 40s. Farther inland, away from the chilling effects of the lake, highs will climb well into the 60s despite increasing and thickening cloudiness today.
Tonight through Thursday night, the vigorous TX system is progged to open up as it moves northeast into the lower Ohio Valley by midday Thursday. Meanwhile, the strong shortwave over Montana will race southeast carving out a deepening northern stream trough over the middle and upper Mississippi Valley. Some differences exist among various models in handling how much phasing occurs between these two systems. Significant, widespread convection over the southeastern U.S. is obviously resulting in significant latent heat release, which could also be leading to some differences in how guidance is handling this southern stream cyclone.
Generally speaking, the GFS and ECMWF are the farther west and strongest with the phased system, which results in much more significant rainfall farther west into our CWA. The GEFS mean QPF is even farther northwest than the 00z operational run. Meanwhile, many of the CAMs show less phasing and a weaker, farther east southern stream system, which keeps the most significant rainfall across Indiana and potentially misses a large portion of our CWA with that system`s rainfall.
Difficult at this distance to pick a “winning” solution as GFS and particularly ECMWF are good models that handle synoptic features like this quite well. However, hard to discount the CAMs like the FV3 and HRRR which miss most of our CWA with the southern stream system, as it is possible these models have a better handle on the SE U.S. convection and significant latent heat flux and its effects on the synoptic system. The NBM is generally a middle ground compromise between the the extremes, though leans more heavily toward the GFS/EC solutions, and is also in good agreement with our going forecast.
If/where 1-2″+ of rain falls in our CWA, it would undoubtedly lead to renewed rises on area rivers, which in many cases remain swollen from last week`s rainfall. Other than renewed main stem river flood concerns, the intensity of the rainfall would likely lead to more nuisance type areal flooding vs flash flooding. This would likely lend itself to more readily be handled by river flood watches/warning and probably some areal flood advisories, so no plans for an areal flood watch at this time. It is also worth noting, there is still a very real possibility that the heavier rainfall totals miss our CWA to the east, which would spare us renewed flood concerns and is another reason to hold off on a flood watch at this time.
One last note; some of the CAMs with their east solutions actually allow for some sunshine western CWA Thursday. This, combined with the cold air aloft/steep lapse rates with the approaching northern stream trough could result in enough instability to support some isolated-scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening over our western CWA. For now, held off on introducing thunder into the forecast for this scenario, but it is something that will need to be considered if the system ends up farther east than the GFS/EC and their respective ensembles suggest.
– Izzi/NWS Chicago