Forecast for Sunday, January 7, 2024 for Arlington Heights, O’Hare area (CARDINAL NEWS). YouTube Tips ⓘ
Snow flurries will be possible throughout the day Sunday. Cloudy skies, high temps will likely only reach the mid 30s, but still a few degrees above normal at about 35°F. Clouds may begin to scatter some tonight, but cloud cover forecast confidence is low. Clouds are good news for the furnace because cloudiness limits how far night temperatures will drop. The low for Arlington Heights and O’Hare International Airport may stay out of the 20s.
Winds will turn to the southeast in pre-Winter Storm mode on Monday, and steadily increase into the 15-25 mph range in the afternoon.
Skies will be mostly cloudy with any significant precipitation holding off until Monday evening. Even Monday night’s snow is likely to be insignificant before 12:00 a.m. Tuesday.
A double hit of snow and rain is forecast Monday through Wednesday with a possible lull in snow and rain sometime Tuesday during daylight.
The Double Hit:
Round #1) Mon. night to Tues. morning (2″), and
Round #2) Tues. afternoon to Wed. morning (?”).
The deeper accumulation is forecast for Round #2, but rain and warmer temperatures at the beginning of Round #2 may limit higher snowfall accumulation in Arlington Heights and at O’Hare. Higher snowfall accumulations are currently forecast to occur from areas along western McHenry County to DeKalb — and west.
Snow road travel hazards may exist from Monday night to Wednesday night.
Arlington Heights and O’Hare International Airport are likely so see about 2 inches of snowfall between 7:00 p.m. Monday and 7:00 a.m. Tuesday (Round #1). A total snowfall accumulation forecast for Round #2 is not reasonably possible currently on this Sunday afternoon.
Rain may be mixed with the snow from around 3:00 a.m. Tuesday until 8:00 p.m. Tuesday with the most significant rain (almost 0.5 inch) occurring in Arlington Heights between 12:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m. Tuesday.
Much colder air will arrive Thursday.
Weather Radar in northeast Illinois was clear.
See also Arlingtoncardinal.com/clouds
Here's a look at ADDITIONAL snowfall amounts/chances on Tue. into Tue. night with the 2nd round which will result in more significant & widespread impacts. The rain/snow line is expected o make it to around I-55 (or even a bit further NW!) resulting in a sharp snowfall gradient! pic.twitter.com/i29h7v39w6
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) January 7, 2024
O’HARE FORECAST …
Sunday: Cloudy, with a high near 35. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind around 5 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 10 mph.
Monday: Cloudy, with a high near 37. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night: Snow before 3am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain. Low around 32. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday: Rain and snow. High near 35. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tuesday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 9pm. Low around 31. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: A chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Thursday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.
Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.
Friday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Blustery.
Saturday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Blustery.
Weather Outlook from Ryan Hall, Y’all XTRA looking forward to a winter storm system this week (posted Jan. 5, 2024). YouTube Tips ⓘ
LAKE TEMPS …
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
910 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES…
CHICAGO SHORE………..38.
CHICAGO CRIB…………39.
MICHIGAN CITY………..39.
SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY…..43.
&&
M IS FOR MISSING DATA THAT IS NORMALLY AVAILABLE.
THE MICHIGAN CITY WATER TEMPERATURE SENSOR IS LOCATED AT A WATER INTAKE ONE MILE OFFSHORE AND 60 FEET BELOW THE WATER SURFACE. IT IS READ EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR.
january.chicagoweatherstation.com
Chicago Weather Forecast for your MAC/PC/TABLET includes surrounding suburbs.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service
Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1135 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
.SHORT TERM… Issued at 157 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
Through Monday…
Key Message:
Light snow/fog ending Sunday morning, then a chance of flurries.
Light snow will slowly taper off to flurries from west to east through daybreak along with patchy fog. Just about all of the short term guidance shows flurries will be possible throughout the day and added a chance of flurries across the entire area. With cloudy skies, high temps will likely only reach the mid 30s. The clouds may begin to scatter some tonight but confidence is low and opted to maintain mostly cloudy, which will limit how far lows will drop, likely only the upper 20s/lower 30s. There is again a chance for flurries but have left out of the forecast from this distance. Winds will turn to the southeast on Monday and steadily increase into the 15-25 mph range in the afternoon. Skies look to remain mostly cloudy with any precip likely holding off until Monday evening.
— cms/NWS Chicago
&&
.LONG TERM… Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024
Monday night through Saturday…
Key Messages:
* Snow arrives Monday night. Roughly 6 hour window in which snow rates may briefly exceed 1 inch per hour exists, particularly along and south of I-80 with a likelihood for challenging AM commutes.
* Brief lull in activity Tuesday morning before more widespread impacts from accumulating wet snow and gusty winds into Tuesday night. Greatest threat for significant impacts remains west of I-55.
* Slow, yet persistent northwest trend noted in model guidance. If this continues, even more of the area will transition to all rain on Tuesday.
The focus during the long term remains squarely on our much- advertised significant storm system which is currently digging through the Great Basin. With the initiating shortwave fully within the CONUS RAOB network and increasingly-better sampled by aircraft and satellite AMVs, spreads across the various guidance suites is steadily lowering. That said, a persistent northwest shift remains very evident in ensemble guidance, and this has continued with all of the 00z ensemble systems. As a result, it`s appearing increasingly probable that a transition to a rain/snow mix and eventually all rain will occur in our CWA through the day on Tuesday, including Chicago and up to about the I-55 corridor. Should this northwest trend continue–which happened to this past Friday night`s system right up until it was snowing over us (telling perhaps)–even more of our area will see a change over to rain and lower snow amounts. As a result of this and a few other factors which will be discussed below, we`ve elected to hold off on winter headlines for this shift.
As has been the case for the past few days, this system is slated to occur essentially in two relatively distinct windows, each of which currently look to impact disparate portions of our forecast area. Wave one will likely bring snow area-wide, but the most concentrated area of impacts may end up focusing near/south of I-80 Monday night. Wave two then occurs Tuesday and Tuesday night with the potential for a narrow corridor of more significant snowfall and impacts.
Window 1: This will be tied to the system`s burgeoning warm advection wing at the nose of an intense 140 kt jet streak ahead of the incoming 500 mb vort max. Large scale forcing for ascent during a roughly 6 hour period looks quite significant, particularly with southward extent through the forecast area with notable upper jet divergence, brief frontogenetic forcing, and significant WAA. In addition, model guidance is in pretty good agreement showing a reservoir of unstable air aloft, with theta-e lapse rates near or just under 0 advertised through a roughly 100-mb thick layer as you head farther south of I-80.
As a result, while temperatures will be at or even just above freezing, it`s not surprising to see model guidance squeezing out near or in excess of a half inch of liquid-equivalent Monday night. Thermal profiles look like they`d support all now, perhaps eventually changing to a rain/snow mix all rain south of about Route 24. Cobb SLRs average out to around 7-9:1 with this initial activity.
While there`s still a degree of spread regarding where the heaviest of this activity will materialize, signal remains for it to set up near/south of I-80 and especially into northwest and north-central Indiana. Snowfall rates could briefly exceed 1 inch per hour, with most of the snow falling in a 4-6 hour window. Our latest snowfall forecast shows a swath of 2-4 inches of very heavy/wet snow in this area and could envision amounts even into the 3-5 inch range being realized given the magnitude of instability present, with the strongest signal for this mainly into IWX`s area at present. Main window for impacts is about 10 PM Monday through the late overnight with rates rapidly diminishing by daybreak. Lingering very heavy/concrete-style snow on roads may lead to a very challenging early-morning commute. Farther north of I-80, snow and slick travel is expected, but more ephemeral nature of forcing and lowered instability suggests accumulations will end up more limited.
Window 2: There may be a brief lull in precip rates on Tuesday morning as UVVs briefly diminish and several layers of mid-level drying develop as the northern terminus of the system dryslot approaches, and potentially even blasts through most of the region.
As the main surface low deepens as it makes its closest approach, deformation-driven precipitation will expand in coverage through midday. With the current multi-model low track consensus, above- freezing air would end up shuttling all the way back to about the I-55 corridor into the afternoon hours resulting in a transition to all rain. Just on the other side of this transition, and about 50 miles farther northwest is where we conceptually expect the heaviest snowfall rates and amounts within the heart of the system deformation axis. The potential exists for over 6 inches (in addition to whatever falls Monday night) of very wet (8-9:1 ratio) snow accumulations in this corridor. Continue to suspect that snow gradients advertised by raw 10:1 and Kuchera maps are too broad, with these likely to be much tighter in reality owing to the marginal surface temperatures and compaction. Snow will continue through much of Tuesday night, but rates will diminish markedly through the evening hours.
Assuming guidance doesn`t shift any further northwest (and that`s absolutely still on the table), the corridor of most significant impacts would set up either side of roughly an Amboy – Harvard line.
Regarding winter headlines: while snow is in the forecast for the better part of 36 hours, the most significant/longer duration impacts continue to look like they`ll materialize roughly midday Tuesday through Tuesday night. While snarled AM commutes are possible in the wake of the Monday night precip, this continues to have the look of more “Advisory” type impacts owing to its brevity and potential for a reprieve before the main event. With Tuesday now period 5, and given the noted persistent NW trend, we elected to hold off on a Winter Storm Watch for our far NW locales on this shift. If things don`t change markedly today, headlines will be needed on the day shift.
Wednesday and beyond: An active wave train will set up over the region through the upcoming weekend. A vigorous follow-up disturbance is slated to arrive Wednesday night/Thursday morning. GFS continues to remain pretty amplified with this feature, and even has the look of supporting snow squalls somewhere in the vicinity with strong low- level flow and a plume of very steep mid-level lapse rates.
This system will open the floodgates to a much colder airmass which will spill into the region through the end of the week. Ensemble solutions continue to show pretty significant spread, but there`s a clear signal for another winter system in the vicinity in the Friday night – Saturday time frame.
— Carlaw/NWS Chicago