US Weather: Quiet Weather Weekend with Chilly Week Ahead

A quiet weekend is in store for the Lower 48. There may be locally heavy rain through mid-day on Saturday, November 12, 2022 across northern New England, while a weak system on the heels of Nicole may produce rain and snow showers from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Great Lakes. The weather trend will be sub-normal temperatures across almost the entire Lower 48, especially in the Central U.S.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center
College Park MD
232 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 12 2022 – 12Z Mon Nov 14 2022

…Showers and thunderstorms will continue across New England on Saturday as the remnant low of Nicole merges with a cold front…

…Below average temperatures for much of the lower 48 through Monday…

…Freeze and Hard Freeze Warnings in effect over portions of the Southern Plains through Saturday morning…

…Lake-effect snow possible across the Great Lakes region on the backside of an upper-level trough swinging eastward…

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical Nicole, which has since begun to merge with a cold front progressing eastward through the Northeast, will continue early Saturday morning into the afternoon. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall rates may occur at times, especially in interior New England, as the system pushes east. However, the relatively fast-moving nature of the precipitation will limit flash flooding potential. Conditions are expected to improve from west to east as the cold front begins to push offshore, leaving behind a cooler and drier airmass, setting the stage for a pleasant yet chilly end to the weekend.

As the potent system exits the lower 48 into the Canadian Maritimes late Saturday evening, the main story for the remainder of the weekend will be the anomalously cold air that will grip the nation. Widespread temperature departures of 10 – 20 degrees below average will stretch from coast to coast as cold, Canadian air pours into CONUS on the backside of a dee Pupper trough swinging eastward. Widespread Freeze Warnings and Watches are in effect across the southern Plains through Saturday morning due to the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures. Surface troughing and northwesterly flow behind the frontal passage will also generate Lake-Effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes, with several inches of snow possible through Sunday, especially in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect.

Further west, a deep, upper-low will slowly dip southward across coastal sections of California, leading to unsettled weather for interior portions of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. The system is forecast to move onshore late Saturday evening before tracking across the Southwest and Plains on Sunday into Monday, producing light snow and a wintry mix throughout the region.

Russell/NWS

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CONUS = Continental United States

SOURCE: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center

AIR PRESSURE MAP SOURCE: Windy.com (air pressure)

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Great Basin

Great Lakes

The Maritimes — New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island

Ohio Valley

Pacific Northwest — approximately U.S. states of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho, and the Canadian province of British Columbia

The Plains or Great Plains

The Southwest — SOuthwestern United States (Arizona, New Mexico and adjacent regions of California, Colorado, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas and Utah)

Tennessee Valley — from southwest Kentucky to north Alabama and from northeast Mississippi to the mountains of Virginia and North Carolina

Upper Peninsula of Michigan