NWS FORECAST: KORD | KPWK | Forecast Graph O’Hare
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O’HARE FORECAST …
TODAY: Increasing clouds with a high near 50. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight: A chance of drizzle with a slight chance of rain between midnight and 4am, then a chance of rain or drizzle after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to around 57 by 4am. Southeast wind around 15 mph becoming south southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday: A chance of rain or drizzle before 7am, then rain likely, mainly between 7am and 5pm. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 50 by 5pm. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain before 7pm, then a slight chance of showers between 7pm and 1am. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 31. West northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Early morning GOES vapor imagery depicts deepening upper level low pressure emerging from the Canadian Rockies and into southern Alberta. Surface low pressure of 982 mb was noted at the surface, with a broad area of surface pressure falls extending southward across the northern and central Plains in response to mid-level height falls downstream of the main upper trough and a 135+ kt upper level jet streak. A surface warm front extended southeast of the Canadian low, int of the lower Missouri and Ohio river valleys. This warm front will lift northward today and tonight, as southerly low level flow increases ahead of the amplifying western trough. This in turn will produce moderating temperatures across the forecast area, with readings rising into the upper 40s north and low-mid 50s far south this afternoon north of the approaching warm front. Warmest temperatures actually look to come tonight, with temps continuing to rise into the mid-upper 50s as the warm front eventually lifts through the forecast area on breezy south winds.
The deep stacked upper/surface lows will continue to propagate east across the Canadian prairies overnight, with the trailing surface cold front eventually pushing east of the Mississippi after midnight. Strong low level flow ahead of the front will be tapping moisture off of the western Gulf, evident in 50+ degree surface dew points and P-wats increasing to 1.00-1.25″ (in excess of 200% of normal for mid-November) by early Wednesday. Guidance is in good agreement in developing drizzle/light rain ahead of the approaching cold front before sunrise Wednesday across the northern parts of the County Warning Area, with rain filling in across the during the morning as the cold front pushes southeast. Despite the anomalously high P-wats, relatively shallow warm cloud depths and lack of convective instability appear to be limiting factors for any significant heavy rainfall threat, with model QPF amounts generally less than 0.75″ in across the southeast half to two thirds of the County Warning Area where the primary axis of greatest rainfall is forecast through period.
The cold front will continue to push southeast across the forecast area through the day, with precipitation ending from the northwest and eventually cooling into the 40s as cooler air is advected in from the west. Rain lingers into the evening hours southeast of the I-55 corridor, but looks to largely end before the column cools sufficiently to change precip over to snow. Blustery and colder conditions are then expected across the area overnight as temps fall into the 20s and lower 30s under decreasingly cloud skies.
DEW/FROST
Unknown. Dew Point Degrees 4 to 6°F.
Weather Radar in northeast Illinois was clear at 8:00 a.m..
Arlingtoncardinal.com/clouds | Arlingtoncardinal.com/temps
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