According to the National Weather Service Chicago, a fast moving surface low lifting from Minnesota to Lake Superior, and another sheared shortwave (a disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion) will induce a very impressive low-level wind response Saturday, October 17, 2020, along with a very strong low level jet. Winds from the south will pick up quickly about 8:00 a.m. and shift from southwest by about noon Saturday. The forecast indicates peak winds of 48 MPH (from the southwest) will occur about 3:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. Gusts could reach 55 MPH. Casual observers will notice a drop-off of wind by about 7:00 p.m. Saturday, but gusting will continue in the low 30 MPH range until midnight. The forecast indicates a high temperature of 65°F about 4:00 p.m. Saturday.
Fire Weather Watch
A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from the south side of Chicago southwest to Peoria and south.
Outdoor burning is NOT recommended. The combination of strong winds, very low relative humidity, mild temperatures, and exceptionally dry fuels will likely promote extremely dangerous behavior of any fires on Saturday. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
Definitions of a Fire Weather Watch and a Red Flag Warning
A Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning is issued when the combination of dry fuels and weather conditions support extreme fire danger. These products are written for land and fire managers to highlight the increased fire danger.
Each NWS office creates local criteria for fire weather watches and red flag warnings. The criteria for northern Illinois and northwest Indiana include:
Sustained 20 foot winds of 20 mph or higher.
Afternoon relative humidity less than 25%.
10 hour fuel moisture at 8% or less for one day.
A Fire Weather Watch is issued up to 72 hours before the above conditions are expected to occur.A Red Flag Warning is issued when the conditions above are expected to occur or are occurring within the next 24 hours.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory, it`s in effect from 11pm to 7pm CDT, with
frequent gusts up to 45-50 mph, and potential for occasional
localized gusts up to 55 mph. The strongest winds are expected to
occur between about 1pm and 5pm CDT.
Future Freeze Frost/Freeze Warnings
According to the National Weather Service Office in Chicago, following this morning`s widespread freeze outside of Chicago, the National Weather Service will be suspending the issuance of Frost/Freeze headlines until Spring 2021.
Weather Radar) shows scattered shows scattered showers over much of northern and central Illinois at 4:10 p.m. Friday, October 16, 2020.
Dangerous fire weather is expected on Saturday due to strong winds and very dry conditions. Any planned burns should be postponed, and extra caution should be taken with open flames, disposal of smoking materials, and chains on vehicles that might drag on the road. #inwx #ilwx pic.twitter.com/y7yuJ0ac7c
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) October 16, 2020
Windy weather continues Saturday with a chance of morning light showers north of I-90. Active weather pattern will bring off and on chances for showers over the next few days. Seasonable temperatures are expected on Saturday, with cooler temperatures Sunday onwards. #inwx #ilwx pic.twitter.com/giGo582JGj
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) October 16, 2020
Here is a look at this morning's chilly low temperatures. Due to most of the area reaching sub-freezing temps overnight and because the growing season is coming to an end, we will not be issuing any more frost/freeze advisories, watches, or warnings until next spring. #ilwx #inwx pic.twitter.com/pBaKtTSdwS
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) October 16, 2020
O’HARE FORECAST …
Wind Advisory for Saturday
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday
This Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then isolated showers between 7pm and 8pm. Increasing clouds, with a low around 39. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Windy, with a south wind 10 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Sunday: Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.
Monday Night: A chance of showers, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 55.
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Thursday: A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Friday: A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
LAKE TEMPS …
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
910 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES…
CHICAGO SHORE……….61.
CHICAGO CRIB……….59.
WILMETTE BUOY……….52.
WINTHROP HARBOR BUOY……….47.
SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY……….57.
NORTH MID LAKE BUOY……….55.
&&
M IS FOR MISSING DATA THAT IS NORMALLY AVAILABLE.
october.chicagoweatherstation.com
Chicago Weather Forecast for your MAC/PC/TABLET includes surrounding suburbs.
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