High snowfall rates and gusty winds as high as 37 MPH are forecast for Saturday. Temperatures will from 43°F at 9:00 a.m. to 34°F by 5:00 p.m. Snow is expected to begin about noon with rain and “rain mixed with snow” beginning about 10:00 a.m. Wind gusts from the east-northeast and then northeast are forecast to increase throughout Saturday, starting at about 16 MPH at 11:00 a.m. and peaking at 37 MPH at about 9:00 p.m. About 5.7 inches of snow are forecast to accumulate in Arlington Heights between noon Saturday and midnight Saturday/Sunday. There could be some thunder between 1:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. This snow system is a Pacific Clipper Hybrid.
Weather Radar (also nexrad.chgowx.com) shows rain over much of northern Illinois and snow was beginning to appear over north central McHenry County at about 8:50 a.m. and then most of western McHenry County west to all of Winnebago County by 9:50 a.m. Thundershower activity may be present of Ogle County south of Rockford at about 9:50 am. The precipitation is moving west to east.
#NoJoke! A late season snow storm could produce several inches of heavy wet snow across portions of the metro area later Saturday into the wee hours of Sunday before ending. Sharp cutoff as you go south. Monitor forecast updates for changes. @nbcchicago pic.twitter.com/V3BBTtBMyt
— Andy Avalos (@AndyAvalosNBC5) April 26, 2019
Threat of #severe thunderstorms and #flooding returns to parts of the Plains this weekend into next week: https://t.co/O81PWdYCW0 pic.twitter.com/VQixd8qiSc
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) April 27, 2019
O’HARE FORECAST …
Today: Rain before noon, then rain and snow between noon and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Temperature falling to around 34 by 4pm. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tonight: Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 48. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Sunday Night: Showers likely after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 40. Southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday: Showers likely before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 57. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.
Tuesday Night: Showers likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 44.
Wednesday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 57.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Thursday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 59.
WINTER STORM WARNING …
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
333 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019
Kane-DuPage-Cook-
Including the cities of Aurora, Elgin, Wheaton, and Chicago
333 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM CDT SUNDAY…
* WHAT…Rain transitioning to a heavy, very wet snow early in
the afternoon and continuing into this evening. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 8 inches will be possible by this evening,
with the highest amounts across northern portions of Kane,
DuPage, and Cook counties. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per
hour will be possible for several hours this afternoon into this
evening. Accumulations of 1 inch or less are expected across
portions of southern Cook County. Northeast winds will also gust
as high as 35 mph late this afternoon and evening.
* WHERE…Kane, DuPage and Cook Counties.
* WHEN…From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Sunday. Heaviest
snowfall rates 3 to 8 PM.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Travel could be very difficult in heavy
snowfall and gusty winds with greatly reduced visibilities.
Minor tree damage will also be possible to due to the heavy snow
and wind.
LAKE MICHIGAN …
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER LEVELS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
855 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER LEVEL…580.87 FEET
CHART DATUM……………..577.50 FEET
ONE MONTH AGO……………7 INCHES ABOVE
ONE YEAR AGO…………….9 INCHES ABOVE
ALL-TIME HIGH MONTHLY MEAN..7 INCHES BELOW/RECORDED 1986
ALL-TIME LOW MONTHLY MEAN…57 INCHES ABOVE/RECORDED 1964
EXPECTED LEVEL IN A MONTH…4 INCHES ABOVE
april.chicagoweatherstation.com
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 647 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019
.SHORT TERM… 346 AM CDT
Through Tonight…
A late season winter storm is expected to affect portions of northern Illinois today and this evening, with high snowfall rates and gusty winds likely creating hazardous travel conditions.
Headline changes include upgrading all counties remaining in the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning.
Synopsis: A hybrid Pacific/clipper system will track eastward across the extreme southern CWA or possibly slightly farther south late this afternoon into the evening. Meanwhile, the phasing mid-level trough will cross the CWA while reaching maximum amplification early this evening. Intense WAA evident on the 285-300K theta surfaces will allow for a band of moderate to heavy precipitation to form in advance of and north of the low late this morning into this evening before precip quickly shifts eastward with the low this evening.
Thermodynamics: Surface temps continue to drop this morning as NE CAA takes hold ahead of the surface low. Though near-surface wet- bulb temps remain several degrees above freezing, a sharp decrease in moisture just above the surface will quickly mix-out higher surface dew points this morning, allowing wet-bulb temps to lower to near freezing across at least the north half. Initial WAA preci Palong and north of I-88 should begin as rain by late morning, but quickly transition over to very wet snow within the main associated Fgen band as low-level temps cool. This band will likely persist through the afternoon roughly along and north of the I-90 corridor NW of Chicago. Precip rates should remain high enough to offset any surface warming as was observed in the April 14th snowfall event. In fact, the midday insolation is only a negligible 5% higher today when compared to the 14th.
Snowfall rates: The main driver in the decision to upgrade the remaining counties in the watch to a warning is the snowfall rates. Wind was also a factor and is mentioned below. Guidance continues to show a persistent signal of several hours (3-6) of snowfall rates of 1-2″ per hour north of I-88, and especially along the I-90 corridor from Chicago and northwest. Impressive forcing throughout the low-level supports these higher rates. Given the extremely wet nature of the snow under this band, driving conditions will likely become difficult for a period late this afternoon into early this evening as warmer surfaces are overcome by the amount of snow. Some of the precip may even be convective in nature as some marginal MUCAPE exists later this afternoon.
Snowfall Amounts: Forecast amounts range from around 1 inch along I- 80, to 2-4″ along I-88, to 5-8″ along and north of a Rockford to Elgin to Evanston line. Most locations will see amounts sub-criteria for a Winter Storm Warning (6″/12hr), but given the higher snowfall rates, wind, and very wet snow, felt impacts will be high enough for a 3-6 hour window this afternoon and early evening to warrant the upgrade to Winter Storm Warning for the remaining counties in the watch.
Wind: Lastly, a stout pressure gradient on the northern edge of the low will result in a brief period of strong NE winds late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will gust to 35 mph area-wide, with gusts over 40 mph along the Lake Michigan shore early to mid- evening. With some trees starting to leaf out, the combination of the snowload and wind may result in minor tree damage and some downed trees. Minor lakeshore flooding will also be possible during this time, but did not issue a Lakeshore Flood Advisory as the brief period of higher winds will not allow waves/swells to build as high as a more drawn-out wind event.