Hurricane Irma Forecast Track Shifted West: Possible Worst-Case Scenario for Florida

On Thursday night September 7, 2017, Hurricane Irma is now on an immediate course for the Turks and Caicos and then the Bahamas as a Category 5 hurricane. The tracking has shifted west, up the center of Florida, which could cause devastation or serious damage in every major city in Florida.

As of Thursday night, Hurricane watches have been issued for parts of South Florida. Hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of the Bahamas and north Cuba.

Hurricane Irma’s forecast track has shifted west and is increasingly likely to target parts of the Florida Peninsula as a dangerous hurricane Saturday and Sunday. Lake Okeechobee presents an extreme risk of storm surge and dike failure.

Arrival of sustained Tropical Storm force winds of 39+ mph
(Tropical storm winds are defined at 39–73 mph)

Florida Keys and Miami SAT 2PM
Lake Okeechobee SUN 2AM
Tampa-Lakeland-Orlando-Titusville SUN 12-1PM
Georgia-Florida Panhandle MON 12A-2AM
South Carolina MON 8AM

Hurricane Irma, could potentially be a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane on its final approach from the Bahamas to Florida, after tracking across the Turks and Caicos. Hurricane Irma may also pose a serious threat to portions of Georgia and the Carolinas, and may even be felt in eastern Tennessee as a strong Tropical Storm.

At about 6:30 p.m. EDT, the center of Irma was located about 40 miles south of Grand Turk Island and was moving west-northwestward at about 16 mph.

Irma’s maximum sustained winds were at 175 mph — data obtained from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Hurricane Irma had sustained winds of 185 mph for a record 35 hours.

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BULLETIN — NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 07 2017

…IRMA PUMMELING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.1N 71.8W
ABOUT 55 MI…85 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…175 MPH…280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…919 MB…27.14 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning east of Cabo Frances Viejo and the Tropical Storm
Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the northern border
with Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress
of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.1
North, longitude 71.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days with some decrease in forward
speed. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward the southeastern
Bahamas this evening. The core of the hurricane will then move
between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next day
or two.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 919 mb (27.14 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands…15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas…5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic…3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave…1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti tonight.
Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are beginning in the
southeastern Bahamas and will spread into the central Bahamas by
tonight or early Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within
the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late
Friday and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida
by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday evening:

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands…
additional 1 to 2 inches
Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos…8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas…12 to 16 inches, isolated 25
inches
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti…4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti…2 to 5 inches
Eastern and central Cuba…4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys…8 to 12 inches,
isolated 20 inches
Lower Florida Keys…2 to 5 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should
start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States
later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg